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Parcae
Glossary odds

Implied Probability

In short: The probability that a set of odds suggests for an outcome. American odds of -150 imply 60% probability; +200 implies 33.3%. Implied probability includes the sportsbook's vig, so it's always slightly higher than the true probability.

Implied probability is the bridge between odds and likelihood. To find +EV bets, you compare the implied probability at one book against the true probability estimated from a sharp reference.