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Parcae
Glossary odds

True Probability

In short: The actual likelihood of an outcome, with vig removed. Estimated by taking a sharp book's implied probabilities and dividing each by their combined total to get values that sum to 100%.

Also known as: fair probability, no-vig probability

True probability is what you’re really trying to estimate when you compare odds across books. A retail book’s implied probability includes vig; the true probability is what you get after removing it. The sharpest available reference (often Pinnacle’s closing line) is the standard source.