Key Number
Key numbers matter because the distribution of game outcomes isn’t smooth. A spread that moves from -2.5 to -3.5 in football crosses the key number 3, which represents a much larger swing in win probability than crossing a non-key number.
Key numbers matter because the distribution of game outcomes isn’t smooth. A spread that moves from -2.5 to -3.5 in football crosses the key number 3, which represents a much larger swing in win probability than crossing a non-key number.