Futures
A futures bet is a wager on the outcome of a season or tournament rather than a single game. The bet typically gets placed weeks or months before resolution and settles only when the underlying event concludes.
Common Futures Markets
- Championship winners: “Lakers to win the 2026 NBA Championship +1200”
- Division and conference winners: “Chiefs to win AFC West -250”
- Season-long awards: “Aaron Judge to win MVP +400”
- Season win totals: “Cowboys over 9.5 wins -110”
- Player props for the season: “LeBron James over 1,800 points”
Futures odds are typically high — outcomes are uncertain and far away, so books can offer attractive payouts. A team you bet at +1200 in October might be the favorite (-200) by playoff time if they have a strong season.
Why It Matters
Futures bets have unique features that affect strategy:
Bankroll lockup. Money tied up in a futures bet isn’t available for other opportunities. A $500 NBA championship bet that won’t resolve for 7 months means $500 you can’t use on tonight’s slate.
Hedging opportunities. As the season progresses and odds change, you can hedge winning futures positions to lock in guaranteed profit. A long-shot bet that becomes a favorite can be hedged across other outcomes for a positive return regardless of who wins.
High implied vig. Futures markets typically have much wider hold than game lines. A 3-way championship futures market with implied probabilities summing to 130% is normal. This makes futures generally -EV from a pure pricing perspective — the upside comes from luck, hedging, or sharp identification of value.
Information edges. Long-tail markets like obscure award candidates are often loosely priced because few people bet them. A bettor with a strong opinion on a rookie of the year candidate might find significant +EV at +5000.
Futures are usually treated more as long-term entertainment than as a primary edge-finding strategy. Most serious bettors include them sparingly, focused on cases where they have a specific informational or hedging angle.